The tense situation in the Caucasus could arise as early as on July or August, says the leader of the Russian People's Democratic Union (RPDU), Mikhail Kasyanov. The most acute sense of danger is in the Caucasus.
"We should understand this as well. And the tense situation could arise as early as on July-August", Kasyanov said.
During the online conference in the "Novaya Gazeta (New Gazette)" Kasyanov said that, according to activists of RPDU, in past weeks military echelons are intensely being transferred to the Caucasus at nights.
"Armored vehicles that are being transported there are no less than on the eve of the August conflict in South Ossetia last year", Kasyanov said.
It is a signal, he says. "It is especially obvious in connection with the termination of the OSCE mission in Georgia and the UN mission in Abkhazia. There are only a few people from the EU left, who do not have access to South Ossetia and Abkhazia. There would not be external eye there any more, which means that chances of doing violence increases there", said the leader of RPDU.
The former president of the fund of "Institute of Economic Analysis", Andrei Illarionov, has also said that Russia might again engage in armed conflict with Georgia in July.
According to him, the war may resume on July 6 - the day when military exercises "Caucasus-2009" of the Russian Armed Forces ends, and US President Barack Obama visits Moscow.
Illarionov has reminded that the intrusion of Russian troops into Georgian territory on August last year, was too, occurred a few days after the end of "Caucasus-2008" exercises. Obama's visit to Russia, in turn, can be used to show the world that a new round of war with Georgia is agreed with the United States.
Department of Monitoring,
Kavkaz Center
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