The probability of a break of Russian dam makes 95%

Scientists and experts have serious doubt about the claims of the Russian authorities that the Sayano-Shushenskaya hydroelectric power plant (SS HPP) is ready for spring floods and predict a major catastrophe.

A Moscow scientist who specializes in catastrophes, Professor Peter Khomyakov, reports about the probability of a dam break at the SS HPP that was put out of operation by the Caucasian Mujahideen in 2009, which could result in flooding of downstream cities, including Krasnoyarsk with a population of 1 million, that would be swept by a giant tsunami wave.

Professor Khomyakov specifies:

"A great cataclysm is expected - a catastrophe at the SS HPP. Time to take radical solutions to save the dam has already been lost. Because the management of the plant didn't try to ensure the most intensive and safe discharge of water, but was busy with a prompt restoration of hydraulic units, it gave the plant up to the will of a disaster.

Meanwhile, the spring floods at the plant are expected to be much higher than normal. The snow masses in water catchment areas exceed the norm 2.0 to 2.25 times. This is enough to create problems for the preservation of the dam. If we add to that weather conditions facilitate quick and abrupt floods, the dam would certainly not survive.

We should add to this a considerable increase in recent seismic activity in the Far East. Of course, the HPP is far from Japan, the Kuriles and Kamchatka, but much seismic activity is not need for a collapse of the dam under floods.

It's enough to have a magnitude 2 earthquake from the Far East at the periphery of the dam to destroy it.

A correct analysis needs the assessment of the probability of the events we describe. The probability of catastrophe at the Sayano-Shushenskaya power plant in late May - early June 2010 makes 65% to 95%. More accurate estimates could be given in April, after evaluation of the development of weather and seismic conditions.

Socio-economic and humanitarian consequences of the disaster are obvious. Putin solemnly restarted a damaged unit of the plant. Thus he explicitly linked his name with a strategy of the restoration of the power plant, which could lead to a catastrophe".

Department of Monitoring,